Explore/Psychology & mind/Predictive processing

Does the brain predict its world?

Build the bridge from Bayesian inference to predictive coding and active inference, then inspect its limits.

Psychology & mindTopic · Selected readingSome background helpful

Background and goal

Comfort with conditional probability helps; use the Probability route if Bayes’ rule is new. The opening step separates a predictive model from the stronger free-energy claims.

A worked generative model plus an account of what could falsify it.

Useful preparation

Start here if the background is new. Equivalent experience is enough.

Probability & statistics
Practise conditional probability before comparing generative and predictive accounts.
MathematicsBeginner

Your pathway

5 steps · 16 hours

01
Update a simple belief
2h · week 1
Bayes’ Theorem
Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy editors · reference
Bayesian conditional probability and updating
Check reading access
Open the reading
Reading notes and task
Bayes’ Theorem. Work through one conditional-probability example and name the prior, likelihood and posterior.
Try thisUse the Bayes overview to write a two-hypothesis example. Calculate how evidence changes the odds and distinguish a prior from an observation.
Your outputA worked update with priors, likelihoods and posterior odds.
02
Map prediction and error
4h · week 1
The Free-Energy Principle: A Unified Brain Theory?
Karl Friston · paper · 2010
Hierarchical predictions, errors and model assumptions
Check reading access
Open the reading
Surfing Uncertainty
Andy Clark · book · 2015
Hierarchical predictions, errors and model assumptions
Check reading access
Open the reading
Reading notes and task
The Free-Energy Principle: A Unified Brain Theory?. Separate the mathematical construction, biological assumptions and proposed empirical scope.
Surfing Uncertainty. Trace the account of hierarchical prediction and ask what role action plays.
Try thisCompare Friston’s overview with Clark’s account. Draw the proposed flow of predictions and errors and mark what the model assumes about the sensory input.
Your outputA predictive-processing diagram with its assumptions.
03
Test a toy model
4h · week 2
The Predictive Mind
Jakob Hohwy · book · 2013
Worked estimation examples and precision weighting
Check reading access
Open the reading
Bayesian Brain
Kenji Doya et al. · book · 2007
Worked estimation examples and precision weighting
Check reading access
Open the reading
Reading notes and task
The Predictive Mind. Inspect how sensory evidence and prior expectations enter the perceptual-inference account.
Bayesian Brain. Choose a worked estimation example and track how uncertainty changes an update.
Try thisUse a spreadsheet or small program to estimate a hidden value from noisy observations. Change the assumed precision and record how strongly new evidence changes the estimate.
Your outputA toy model with two precision settings and an interpretation.
04
Compare explanations of action
4h · week 3
Active Inference and Learning
Karl Friston et al. · paper · 2016
Action, interoception and predicted sensory consequences
Check reading access
Open the reading
Interoceptive Inference, Emotion, and the Embodied Self
Anil Seth · paper · 2013
Action, interoception and predicted sensory consequences
Check reading access
Open the reading
Reading notes and task
Active Inference and Learning. Identify how an action changes the sensory evidence expected by the model.
Interoceptive Inference, Emotion, and the Embodied Self. Trace the proposed connection between bodily signals, predictions and experienced emotion.
Try thisRead the active-inference and interoceptive accounts. Describe one action or bodily experience and compare their explanations with a simpler stimulus-response account.
Your outputA prediction table and a possible distinguishing observation.
05
Explain the model’s reach
2h · week 4
Reading notes and task
Try thisWrite a 500-word account of the toy model and the larger theory. Separate a useful computational example from a claim about how brains actually work.
Your outputA model brief with evidence, assumptions and limits.

Compare perspectives

Editorial perspectives based on selected works, rather than author-endorsed reading lists.

Reference synthesis

Editorial synthesis

An editorial comparison of the route’s selected accounts and evidence.

A curated synthesis cannot be neutral or exhaustive. Follow the primary sources when an interpretation matters.

Karl Friston

Reconstructed perspective

An editorial reconstruction using the selected work of Karl Friston.

This is not an author-endorsed syllabus. The reconstruction highlights selected works and may omit other commitments.

Andy Clark

Reconstructed perspective

An editorial reconstruction using the selected work of Andy Clark.

This is not an author-endorsed syllabus. The reconstruction highlights selected works and may omit other commitments.

Jakob Hohwy

Reconstructed perspective

An editorial reconstruction using the selected work of Jakob Hohwy.

This is not an author-endorsed syllabus. The reconstruction highlights selected works and may omit other commitments.

Key ideas

View connections

Bayesian inference Prediction error Generative model Active inference

All 20 resources

Background, different viewpoints, and further reading.

The Free-Energy Principle: A Unified Brain Theory?
Karl Fristonpaper · 2010core
Separate the mathematical construction, biological assumptions and proposed empirical scope.
Hierarchical predictions, errors and model assumptions
Active Inference and Learning
Karl Friston et al.paper · 2016core
Identify how an action changes the sensory evidence expected by the model.
Action, interoception and predicted sensory consequences
Surfing Uncertainty
Andy Clarkbook · 2015core
Trace the account of hierarchical prediction and ask what role action plays.
Hierarchical predictions, errors and model assumptions
The Predictive Mind
Jakob Hohwybook · 2013core
Inspect how sensory evidence and prior expectations enter the perceptual-inference account.
Worked estimation examples and precision weighting
Bayesian Brain
Kenji Doya et al.book · 2007commentary
Choose a worked estimation example and track how uncertainty changes an update.
Worked estimation examples and precision weighting
Predictive Coding Under the Free-Energy Principle
Karl Friston · Stefan Kiebelpaper · 2009commentary
Annotate one equation’s variables and the assumptions linking it to neural processing.
One formal model and its stated assumptions
Whatever Next? Predictive Brains, Situated Agents, and the Future of Cognitive Science
Andy Clarkpaper · 2013commentary
Extract one claim and distinguish the evidence supporting it from the author’s interpretation.
Full paper; methods and limitations
Interoceptive Inference, Emotion, and the Embodied Self
Anil Sethpaper · 2013commentary
Trace the proposed connection between bodily signals, predictions and experienced emotion.
Action, interoception and predicted sensory consequences
Active Inference
Thomas Parr, Giovanni Pezzulo · Karl Fristonbook · 2022criticism
Select one formal model and compare its assumptions with the simpler toy example.
One formal model and its stated assumptions
Being No One
Thomas Metzingerbook · 2003criticism
Compare this account’s mechanism with the preceding reading; note where their predictions differ.
Selected chapters and argument
Embodied Cognition
Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy editorsreferencebackground
Use the entry’s distinctions and bibliography to test the route’s central argument, rather than treating a summary as a substitute for the primary source.
Named section and worked examples
Bayes’ Theorem
Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy editorsreferencebackground
Work through one conditional-probability example and name the prior, likelihood and posterior.
Bayesian conditional probability and updating
The Problem of Perception
Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy editorsreferencebackground
Use the entry’s distinctions and bibliography to test the route’s central argument, rather than treating a summary as a substitute for the primary source.
Named section and worked examples
The Neuroscience of Consciousness
Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy editorsreferencebackground
Use the entry’s distinctions and bibliography to test the route’s central argument, rather than treating a summary as a substitute for the primary source.
Named section and worked examples
The Computational Theory of Mind
Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy editorsreferencebackground
Use the entry’s distinctions and bibliography to test the route’s central argument, rather than treating a summary as a substitute for the primary source.
Named section and worked examples
Mental Representation
Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy editorsreferencebackground
Use the entry’s distinctions and bibliography to test the route’s central argument, rather than treating a summary as a substitute for the primary source.
Named section and worked examples
Models in Science
Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy editorsreferenceextension
Use the entry’s distinctions and bibliography to test the route’s central argument, rather than treating a summary as a substitute for the primary source.
Named section and worked examples
Emotion
Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy editorsreferenceextension
Use the entry’s distinctions and bibliography to test the route’s central argument, rather than treating a summary as a substitute for the primary source.
Named section and worked examples
Action
Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy editorsreferenceextension
Use the entry’s distinctions and bibliography to test the route’s central argument, rather than treating a summary as a substitute for the primary source.
Named section and worked examples
Self-Consciousness
Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy editorsreferenceextension
Use the entry’s distinctions and bibliography to test the route’s central argument, rather than treating a summary as a substitute for the primary source.
Named section and worked examples

Continue learning

Working memory
Use a delayed-response task to compare predictive accounts with other explanations of memory.
Psychology & mindSome background

Finding the next step…

Does the brain predict its world?

Useful preparation

Your pathway

Update a simple belief

Map prediction and error

Test a toy model

Compare explanations of action

Explain the model’s reach

Reference synthesis

Key ideas

Continue learning

Does the brain predict its world?

Useful preparation

Your pathway

Update a simple belief

Map prediction and error

Test a toy model

Compare explanations of action

Explain the model’s reach

Reference synthesis

Key ideas

Continue learning