Key question
How do we reason under uncertainty?
Check your understanding
Find an example, an application and a limit. Explain the concept without using its name, then compare your explanation with a primary source.
Loading your learning…
Claims to examine
Conditioning can change a probability substantially when base rates differ.
A precise description of collected data does not by itself justify a population estimate or a causal claim.
Follow a learning route
How do we reason under uncertainty?
Connect probability models, conditioning, random variables and inference with simulation and explicit assumptions.
What can a small dataset tell me, and what can it not?
Describe data, examine a sample and write a report with clear limits.